Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Draßburg vs Wiener SC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Draßburg
Draßburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
3/15/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 19Sportplatz Draßburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Draßburg33%
×Draw23%
Wiener SC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Draßburg
1.46
Wiener SC
1.73

Wiener SC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 100 away

creates per match

Draßburg
1.38
Wiener SC
1.61

allows per match

Draßburg
1.85
Wiener SC
1.55

finishing

Draßburg+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Draßburg ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Draßburg or draw
56%
Draßburg or Wiener SC
77%
Draw or Wiener SC
67%

Winning margin

Draßburg wins by 2+
15%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Draßburg 1+ goals
77%
Draßburg 2+ goals
43%
Draßburg 3+ goals
18%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
82%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
52%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Draßburg (draw refunded)
43%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Draßburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 55 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Draßburg attack 1.38 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Draßburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Draßburg scores more
33%
level
23%
Wiener SC scores more
44%

Wiener SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Draßburg vs Wiener SC

Wiener SC beat Draßburg 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Draßburg in Draßburg.