Wiedenbrück 2–0 Hannover 96 II: Result & Stats

Wiedenbrück

FT

2 – 0

Hannover 96 II

8/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wiedenbrück52%

×Draw22%

Hannover 96 II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiedenbrückExpected goals in this matchHannover 96 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.40

Wiedenbrück

2.02

Hannover 96 II

1.40

Wiedenbrück creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.80

1.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Wiedenbrück

1.44

Hannover 96 II

1.80

allows per match

Wiedenbrück

1.00

Hannover 96 II

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiedenbrück+0.00on par

Hannover 96 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiedenbrück ↓

Hannover 96 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wiedenbrück or draw

73%

Wiedenbrück or Hannover 96 II

78%

Draw or Hannover 96 II

48%

Winning margin

Wiedenbrück wins by 2+

30%

Hannover 96 II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wiedenbrück 1+ goals

87%

Wiedenbrück 2+ goals

60%

Wiedenbrück 3+ goals

33%

Hannover 96 II 1+ goals

75%

Hannover 96 II 2+ goals

41%

Hannover 96 II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)

66%

Hannover 96 II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiedenbrück at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Hannover 96 II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiedenbrück attack 1.44 + Hannover 96 II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hannover 96 II attack 1.80 + Wiedenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wiedenbrück scores more

52%

level

22%

Hannover 96 II scores more

27%

Wiedenbrück at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wiedenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff