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Wieczysta Kraków vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
5/6/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków63%
×Draw19%
Chełmianka Chełm18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wieczysta Kraków
2.41
Chełmianka Chełm
1.23

Wieczysta Kraków creates 96% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków
3.39
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków
0.73
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw
82%
Wieczysta Kraków or Chełmianka Chełm
81%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
37%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
41%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
91%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
69%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
43%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
71%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
35%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
78%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.41

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more
63%
level
19%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
18%

Wieczysta Kraków at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wieczysta Kraków 2–0 Chełmianka Chełm

Wieczysta Kraków beat Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Wieczysta in Kraków.