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Chełmianka Chełm vs Wieczysta Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
0 – 2
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm40%
×Draw24%
Wieczysta Kraków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
1.56
Wieczysta Kraków
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Wieczysta Kraków
1.74

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Wieczysta Kraków
1.35

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
64%
Chełmianka Chełm or Wieczysta Kraków
76%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
60%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
20%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
79%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
46%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
21%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
77%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
43%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
53%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
40%
level
24%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
36%

Chełmianka Chełm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 0–2 Wieczysta Kraków

Wieczysta Kraków beat Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.