Wieczysta Kraków 2–0 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Wieczysta Kraków

FT

2 – 0

Avia Świdnik

3/23/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków58%

×Draw20%

Avia Świdnik22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wieczysta KrakówExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.31

Wieczysta Kraków

2.25

Avia Świdnik

1.31

Wieczysta Kraków creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 104 away

3.39

creates per match

1.89

0.73

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków

3.39

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków

0.73

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw

78%

Wieczysta Kraków or Avia Świdnik

80%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

42%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

36%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

89%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

65%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

39%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

73%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

38%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

73%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 3.39, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 3.39 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 2.25

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

58%

level

20%

Avia Świdnik scores more

22%

Wieczysta Kraków at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff