Avia Świdnik 3–1 Wieczysta Kraków: Result & Stats

Avia Świdnik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wieczysta Kraków

8/27/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Avia Świdnik48%

×Draw23%

Wieczysta Kraków29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avia ŚwidnikExpected goals in this matchWieczysta Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.36

Avia Świdnik

1.80

Wieczysta Kraków

1.36

Avia Świdnik creates 32% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 34 away

2.24

creates per match

1.74

0.98

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Avia Świdnik

2.24

Wieczysta Kraków

1.74

allows per match

Avia Świdnik

0.98

Wieczysta Kraków

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw

71%

Avia Świdnik or Wieczysta Kraków

77%

Draw or Wieczysta Kraków

52%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

26%

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

83%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

54%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

27%

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

74%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

39%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

62%

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more

48%

level

23%

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

29%

Avia Świdnik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff