Widzew Łódź 0–1 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Warta Poznań

11/4/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Widzew Łódź37%

×Draw28%

Warta Poznań35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.16

Widzew Łódź

1.20

Warta Poznań

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.26

Warta Poznań

1.06

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

1.25

Warta Poznań

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

65%

Widzew Łódź or Warta Poznań

72%

Draw or Warta Poznań

63%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

16%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

70%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

34%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

12%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

69%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

32%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

51%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

37%

level

28%

Warta Poznań scores more

35%

Widzew Łódź at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff