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Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
8/20/2022EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 6Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań39%
×Draw28%
Widzew Łódź33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań
1.23
Widzew Łódź
1.12

Warta Poznań creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań
1.03
Widzew Łódź
1.12

allows per match

Warta Poznań
1.11
Widzew Łódź
1.44

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw
67%
Warta Poznań or Widzew Łódź
72%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
61%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+
17%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals
71%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
35%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
13%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
67%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
31%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
54%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Widzew Łódź attack 1.12 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warta Poznań scores more
39%
level
28%
Widzew Łódź scores more
33%

Warta Poznań at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź

Widzew Łódź beat Warta Poznań 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.