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Widzew Łódź vs Stal Rzeszów — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
A. Klimek 89'
B. Pawlowski 82', 40' (pen)
E. Terpilowski 50'
K. Sadlocha 44'
B. Poczobut 38' (pen)
7/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Widzew Łódź76%
×Draw13%
Stal Rzeszów11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
3.31
Stal Rzeszów
1.24

Widzew Łódź creates 167% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
3.15
Stal Rzeszów
1.12

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.35
Stal Rzeszów
3.47

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
89%
Widzew Łódź or Stal Rzeszów
87%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
24%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
57%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
96%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
83%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
62%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
71%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
35%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
87%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 3.15 + Stal Rzeszów defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 3.31

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.12 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
76%
level
13%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
11%

Widzew Łódź at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
B. PoczobutPenalty
40'
B. PawlowskiPenalty
44'
K. Sadlocha
50'
E. Terpilowski
82'
B. Pawlowski
89'
A. Klimek
Widzew
Stal
J. Niedźwiedź
Manager: J. Niedźwiedź
D. Myśliwiec
Manager: D. Myśliwiec

Friendlies Clubs: Widzew Łódź 4–2 Stal Rzeszów

Widzew Łódź beat Stal Rzeszów 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2023.

Goals: B. Poczobut (38' pen), B. Pawlowski (40' pen, 82'), K. Sadlocha (44'), E. Terpilowski (50'), A. Klimek (89').

The match was played at Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska in Wola Chorzelowska.