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Stal Rzeszów vs Widzew Łódź — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
1 – 1
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
7/17/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stal Rzeszów36%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Widzew Łódź
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.75
Widzew Łódź
1.63

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.38
Widzew Łódź
1.13

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
61%
Stal Rzeszów or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
64%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
17%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
76%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
42%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
18%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
78%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
44%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
48%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Widzew Łódź attack 1.63 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
36%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
39%

Widzew Łódź at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów vs Widzew Łódź

Stal Rzeszów and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska in Wola Chorzelowska.