Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
4/16/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Widzew Łódź46%
×Draw26%
Puszcza Niepołomice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.47
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.08

Widzew Łódź creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.59
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
0.97
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
72%
Widzew Łódź or Puszcza Niepołomice
74%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
54%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
23%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
18%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
66%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
29%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
62%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.59 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Widzew Łódź defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
46%
level
26%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
28%

Widzew Łódź at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Widzew Łódź 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Widzew Łódź beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 in I Liga on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.