Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Widzew Łódź

12/11/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 18Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice41%

×Draw25%

Widzew Łódź33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.46

Widzew Łódź

1.29

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

1.47

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.47

Widzew Łódź

1.12

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.47

Widzew Łódź

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

67%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Widzew Łódź

75%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

59%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

20%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

77%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

43%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

18%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

72%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

37%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

55%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Widzew Łódź attack 1.12 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

41%

level

25%

Widzew Łódź scores more

33%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff