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Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
2/25/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Widzew Łódź46%
×Draw27%
Gornik Zabrze27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.38
Gornik Zabrze
0.99

Widzew Łódź creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.26
Gornik Zabrze
0.88

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.10
Gornik Zabrze
1.49

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more
Gornik Zabrze-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Gornik Zabrze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
73%
Widzew Łódź or Gornik Zabrze
73%
Draw or Gornik Zabrze
54%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
22%
Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
75%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
40%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
16%
Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
63%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
26%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
63%
Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
46%
level
27%
Gornik Zabrze scores more
27%

Widzew Łódź at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze

Widzew Łódź beat Gornik Zabrze 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.