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Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
4/27/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 30Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Gornik Zabrze47%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornik Zabrze
1.55
Widzew Łódź
1.12

Gornik Zabrze creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.56
Widzew Łódź
1.13

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.11
Widzew Łódź
1.54

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.01on par
Widzew Łódź-0.26scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw
73%
Gornik Zabrze or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
53%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
24%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
79%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
46%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
20%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
67%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
31%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
63%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.55

Widzew Łódź attack 1.13 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more
47%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
27%

Gornik Zabrze at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
JosemaGornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze · D
7.9

Match Events

46'
Ľubomír Tupta
46'
J. Sypek← K. Cybulski
66'
P. Volanakis← Juan Ibiza
72'
O. Sow← L. Zahović
74'
Fábio Nunes← M. Hanousek
77'
Matúš Kmeť
78'
Rafał Janicki
79'
Juljan Shehu
79'
Y. Furukawa← M. Kmeť
85'
H. Sobol← Ľ. Tupta
90+1'
A. Buksa← T. Ismaheel
90+1'
L. Ambros← Ł. Podolski

Possession

50%Gornik

Shots

9Gornik

Pass accuracy

50%Gornik

Statistics

GornikWidzew
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots9
0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.80
5Corners5
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked2
6Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
466Total Passes467
391Accurate Passes399
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Widzew Łódź

Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 27, 2025.

Gornik Zabrze controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.