Widzew Łódź 1–0 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GKS Katowice

J. Sypek 60'

3/15/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Widzew Łódź46%

×Draw26%

GKS Katowice29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

Widzew Łódź

1.50

GKS Katowice

1.13

Widzew Łódź creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

1.14

1.12

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.32

GKS Katowice

1.14

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

1.12

GKS Katowice

1.67

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.26scores more

GKS Katowice-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

71%

Widzew Łódź or GKS Katowice

74%

Draw or GKS Katowice

54%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

23%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

78%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

44%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

19%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

68%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

31%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

62%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 12 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.32 + GKS Katowice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

GKS Katowice attack 1.14 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

46%

level

26%

GKS Katowice scores more

29%

Widzew Łódź at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

J. Sypek

Widzew Łódź · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

Jakub Sypek

46'

B. Pawłowski← S. Hamulić

50'

Peter Therkildsen

60'

J. Sypek

63'

L. Kastrati← M. Krajewski

67'

M. Mak← B. Nowak

67'

K. Gruszkowski← Borja Galán

75'

Fábio Nunes← J. Sypek

76'

D. Drachal← S. Bergier

76'

F. Szymczak← A. Błąd

77'

Ľubomír Tupta

82'

H. Sobol← Ľ. Tupta

82'

S. Czyż← Fran Álvarez

86'

Hubert Sobol

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WidzewGKS

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots18

1.55Expected Goals (xG)2.12

3Corners6

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots18

5On Target3

3Off Target13

3Blocked2

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

383Total Passes469

314Accurate Passes407

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2