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GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2025

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
M. Wasielewski 42'
O. Repka 38'
J. Łukowski 90+2'
I. Rondić 13'
9/13/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 8Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

GKS Katowice37%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.47
Widzew Łódź
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.40
Widzew Łódź
1.13

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.82
Widzew Łódź
1.54

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.21scores more
Widzew Łódź-0.26scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
62%
GKS Katowice or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
63%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
18%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
77%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
43%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
18%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
50%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.82 · 18 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.40 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Widzew Łódź attack 1.13 + GKS Katowice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
37%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
38%

Widzew Łódź at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
O. RepkaGKS KatowiceGKS Katowice · M
7.7

Match Events

13'
I. Rondić
15'
Samuel Kozlovský
28'
Juan Fernández
31'
Marcin Wasielewski
38'
O. Repka↳ S. Bergier
42'
M. Wasielewski↳ A. Błąd
61'
S. Hamulić← J. Sypek
71'
J. Łukowski← S. Kerk
73'
Borja Galán← S. Bergier
80'
A. Czerwiński← G. Rogala
80'
Luís Silva← S. Kozlovský
80'
K. Cybulski← H. Gong
80'
M. Krajewski← L. Kastrati
83'
Alan Czerwiński
85'
Said Hamulić
90'
J. Arak← B. Nowak
90'
M. Marzec← A. Błąd
90+2'
J. Łukowski

Possession

41%GKS

Shots

16GKS

Pass accuracy

48%GKS

Statistics

GKSWidzew
Overview
41%Possession59%
16Total Shots19
2.39Expected Goals (xG)2.09
5Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots19
3On Target4
7Off Target8
6Blocked7
11Inside Box13
5Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
353Total Passes528
271Accurate Passes444
77%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
6Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: GKS Katowice 2–2 Widzew Łódź

GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on September 13, 2024.

Goals: I. Rondić (13'), O. Repka (38'), M. Wasielewski (42'), J. Łukowski (90+2').

Widzew Łódź controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.