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Widzew Łódź vs CSKA Sofia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
CANC
13:00
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
1/23/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Widzew Łódź55%
×Draw21%
CSKA Sofia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
2.17
CSKA Sofia
1.38

Widzew Łódź creates 57% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
3.15
CSKA Sofia
1.40

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.35
CSKA Sofia
1.20

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
76%
Widzew Łódź or CSKA Sofia
79%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
45%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
33%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
89%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
64%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
36%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
75%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
40%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
70%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 3.15 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

CSKA Sofia attack 1.40 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
55%
level
21%
CSKA Sofia scores more
24%

Widzew Łódź at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Widzew Łódź host CSKA Sofia

January 23, 2025: Widzew Łódź take on CSKA Sofia in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Widzew Łódź host CSKA Sofia at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.