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CSKA Sofia vs Widzew Łódź — Friendlies Clubs 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
CANC
15:00
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
1/30/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CSKA Sofia38%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.46
Widzew Łódź
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.79
Widzew Łódź
1.63

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
1.29
Widzew Łódź
1.13

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
62%
CSKA Sofia or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
62%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
18%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
77%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
43%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
18%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
50%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.79 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Widzew Łódź attack 1.63 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
38%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
38%

CSKA Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CSKA Sofia host Widzew Łódź

January 30, 2024: CSKA Sofia take on Widzew Łódź in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CSKA Sofia host Widzew Łódź at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.