Widzew Łódź 1–1 Cracovia Krakow: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cracovia Krakow

2/9/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Widzew Łódź47%

×Draw26%

Cracovia Krakow27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Widzew Łódź

1.52

Cracovia Krakow

1.09

Widzew Łódź creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

1.08

1.10

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.26

Cracovia Krakow

1.08

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

1.10

Cracovia Krakow

1.78

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more

Cracovia Krakow-0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

73%

Widzew Łódź or Cracovia Krakow

74%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

53%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

24%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

78%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

45%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

20%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

66%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

30%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

63%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

47%

level

26%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

27%

Widzew Łódź at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff