Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
3/16/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cracovia Krakow45%
×Draw27%
Widzew Łódź28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
1.38
Widzew Łódź
1.02

Cracovia Krakow creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.22
Widzew Łódź
1.13

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
0.91
Widzew Łódź
1.54

finishing

Cracovia Krakow-0.31scores less
Widzew Łódź-0.26scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
72%
Cracovia Krakow or Widzew Łódź
73%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
55%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
21%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
75%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
40%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
16%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
64%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
27%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
62%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.22 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Widzew Łódź attack 1.13 + Cracovia Krakow defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
45%
level
27%
Widzew Łódź scores more
28%

Cracovia Krakow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Widzew Łódź

Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.