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Widzew Łódź vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
11/24/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 19Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Widzew Łódź57%
×Draw22%
Bytovia Bytów22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.99
Bytovia Bytów
1.15

Widzew Łódź creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
2.12
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.12
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
78%
Widzew Łódź or Bytovia Bytów
78%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
43%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
34%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
86%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
59%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
32%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
68%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
32%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
72%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 2.12 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.99

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
57%
level
22%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
22%

Widzew Łódź at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widzew Łódź vs Bytovia Bytów

Widzew Łódź beat Bytovia Bytów 4-0 in II Liga - East on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.