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Bytovia Bytów vs Widzew Łódź — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
8/3/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów32%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.31
Widzew Łódź
1.54

Widzew Łódź creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Widzew Łódź
1.71

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Widzew Łódź
1.06

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
57%
Bytovia Bytów or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
68%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
14%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
73%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
38%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
79%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
45%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
43%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Widzew Łódź attack 1.71 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
32%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
43%

Widzew Łódź at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs Widzew Łódź

Bytovia Bytów beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 in II Liga - East on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.