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Widad Témara vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Widad Témara
Widad Témara
FT
1 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
10/20/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal de Témara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Widad Témara48%
×Draw30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widad Témara
1.22
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.72

Widad Témara creates 69% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Widad Témara
0.97
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Widad Témara
0.97
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Widad Témara+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widad Témara ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Widad Témara or draw
78%
Widad Témara or Chabab RIF Hoceima
70%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
52%

Winning margin

Widad Témara wins by 2+
22%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Widad Témara 1+ goals
70%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
34%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
12%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
51%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Widad Témara (draw refunded)
69%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widad Témara at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widad Témara attack 0.97 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Widad Témara defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Widad Témara scores more
48%
level
30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
22%

Widad Témara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Widad Témara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Widad Témara 1–0 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Widad Témara beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Témara in Témara.