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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Widad Témara — Botola 2 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
2 – 2
Widad Témara
Widad Témara
2/23/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%
×Draw29%
Widad Témara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.19
Widad Témara
1.01

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Widad Témara
0.83

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Widad Témara
1.24

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Widad Témara+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Widad Témara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
69%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Widad Témara
71%
Draw or Widad Témara
60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
17%
Widad Témara wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
70%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
33%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
12%
Widad Témara 1+ goals
64%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
27%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
56%
Widad Témara (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Widad Témara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Widad Témara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Widad Témara attack 0.83 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
40%
level
29%
Widad Témara scores more
31%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab RIF Hoceima 2–2 Widad Témara

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Widad Témara drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi in Al Hoceima.