Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wichita vs St. Charles — USL League Two 2018

Wichita
Wichita
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
St. Charles
St. Charles
6/18/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10Stryker Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Wichita37%
×Draw20%
St. Charles43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wichita
2.08
St. Charles
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Wichita
1.82
St. Charles
2.42

allows per match

Wichita
2.12
St. Charles
2.33

finishing

Wichita+0.00on par
St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wichita ↓

St. Charles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Wichita or draw
57%
Wichita or St. Charles
80%
Draw or St. Charles
63%

Winning margin

Wichita wins by 2+
20%
St. Charles wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wichita 1+ goals
87%
Wichita 2+ goals
61%
Wichita 3+ goals
34%
St. Charles 1+ goals
90%
St. Charles 2+ goals
66%
St. Charles 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Wichita (draw refunded)
46%
St. Charles (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wichita at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wichita attack 1.82 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

St. Charles attack 2.42 + Wichita defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wichita scores more
37%
level
20%
St. Charles scores more
43%

St. Charles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St. Charles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wichita vs St. Charles

St. Charles beat Wichita 4-3 in USL League Two on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stryker Soccer Complex in Wichita, Kansas.