St. Charles 3–0 Wichita: Result & Stats

St. Charles

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wichita

6/22/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 11Lutheran High School St. Charles Foot Ball Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

St. Charles66%

×Draw17%

Wichita17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. CharlesExpected goals in this matchWichita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.35

St. Charles

2.71

Wichita

1.35

St. Charles creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

2.58

creates per match

0.78

1.92

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

St. Charles

2.58

Wichita

0.78

allows per match

St. Charles

1.92

Wichita

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Charles+0.00on par

Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Charles ↓

Wichita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

St. Charles or draw

83%

St. Charles or Wichita

83%

Draw or Wichita

34%

Winning margin

St. Charles wins by 2+

45%

Wichita wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

St. Charles 1+ goals

93%

St. Charles 2+ goals

75%

St. Charles 3+ goals

50%

Wichita 1+ goals

74%

Wichita 2+ goals

39%

Wichita 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

St. Charles (draw refunded)

79%

Wichita (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Charles at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Charles attack 2.58 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.71

Wichita attack 0.78 + St. Charles defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

St. Charles scores more

66%

level

17%

Wichita scores more

17%

St. Charles at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "St. Charles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff