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Wiązownica vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
11/23/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wiązownica44%
×Draw24%
Lewart32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.67
Lewart
1.40

Wiązownica creates 19% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 37 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
68%
Wiązownica or Lewart
76%
Draw or Lewart
56%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
23%
Lewart wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
81%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
50%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
23%
Lewart 1+ goals
75%
Lewart 2+ goals
41%
Lewart 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
58%
Lewart (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lewart attack 0.95 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiązownica scores more
44%
level
24%
Lewart scores more
32%

Wiązownica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiązownica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wiązownica vs Lewart

Wiązownica beat Lewart 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.