Lewart 4–1 Wiązownica: Result & Stats

Lewart

FT

4 – 1

Wiązownica

8/16/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart42%

×Draw24%

Wiązownica35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LewartExpected goals in this matchWiązownica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.48

Lewart

1.65

Wiązownica

1.48

Lewart creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

1.14

creates per match

1.26

1.70

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Lewart

1.14

Wiązownica

1.26

allows per match

Lewart

1.70

Wiązownica

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Wiązownica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lewart or draw

65%

Lewart or Wiązownica

76%

Draw or Wiązownica

58%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+

21%

Wiązownica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals

81%

Lewart 2+ goals

49%

Lewart 3+ goals

23%

Wiązownica 1+ goals

77%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

43%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)

55%

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lewart scores more

42%

level

24%

Wiązownica scores more

35%

Lewart at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff