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Wiązownica vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
5/19/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wiązownica41%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.70
Garbarnia Kraków
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
64%
Wiązownica or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
59%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
21%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
82%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
51%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
79%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
46%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
54%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.70

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wiązownica scores more
41%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
36%

Wiązownica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wiązownica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 5–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Wiązownica beat Garbarnia Kraków 5-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.