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Garbarnia Kraków vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
10/28/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków51%
×Draw22%
Wiązownica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.94
Wiązownica
1.36

Garbarnia Kraków creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.71
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.47
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
73%
Garbarnia Kraków or Wiązownica
78%
Draw or Wiązownica
49%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
29%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
86%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
58%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
30%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
74%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
39%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
65%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
51%
level
22%
Wiązownica scores more
27%

Garbarnia Kraków at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Garbarnia Kraków 1–3 Wiązownica

Wiązownica beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.