Wiązownica 0–3 Łagów: Result & Stats

Wiązownica

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Łagów

10/30/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wiązownica30%

×Draw25%

Łagów46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiązownicaExpected goals in this matchŁagów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.60

Wiązownica

1.24

Łagów

1.60

Łagów creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 45 away

1.46

creates per match

1.36

1.85

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Wiązownica

1.46

Łagów

1.36

allows per match

Wiązownica

1.85

Łagów

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Łagów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw

54%

Wiązownica or Łagów

75%

Draw or Łagów

70%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+

12%

Łagów wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals

71%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

35%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

13%

Łagów 1+ goals

80%

Łagów 2+ goals

47%

Łagów 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

39%

Łagów (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Łagów attack 1.36 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wiązownica scores more

30%

level

25%

Łagów scores more

46%

Łagów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff