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Łagów vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
CANC
16:00
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
5/27/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów54%
×Draw22%
Wiązownica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.98
Wiązownica
1.27

Łagów creates 56% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
76%
Łagów or Wiązownica
78%
Draw or Wiązownica
46%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
31%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
86%
Łagów 2+ goals
59%
Łagów 3+ goals
31%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
72%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
36%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
69%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Łagów scores more
54%
level
22%
Wiązownica scores more
24%

Łagów at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Łagów host Wiązownica

May 27, 2023: Łagów take on Wiązownica in III Liga - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Łagów host Wiązownica at Stadion w Łagówie.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.