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White Star Woluwe W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
5/5/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Lower Table Round - 9Stade Communal Fallon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

White Star Woluwe W47%
×Draw23%
Mechelen W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

White Star Woluwe W
1.81
Mechelen W
1.40

White Star Woluwe W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 26 away

creates per match

White Star Woluwe W
0.85
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

White Star Woluwe W
1.79
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

White Star Woluwe W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

White Star Woluwe W or draw
70%
White Star Woluwe W or Mechelen W
77%
Draw or Mechelen W
53%

Winning margin

White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
26%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
84%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
54%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
27%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
75%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
41%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
61%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

White Star Woluwe W at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.85 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + White Star Woluwe W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

White Star Woluwe W scores more
47%
level
23%
Mechelen W scores more
30%

White Star Woluwe W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "White Star Woluwe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: White Star Woluwe W vs Mechelen W

Mechelen W beat White Star Woluwe W 4-2 in Super League Women on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Communal Fallon in Brussels.