Mechelen W 4–0 White Star Woluwe W: Result & Stats

Mechelen W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

White Star Woluwe W

4/13/2024

Super League Women · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion FC Kontich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mechelen W54%

×Draw21%

White Star Woluwe W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mechelen WExpected goals in this matchWhite Star Woluwe W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.46

Mechelen W

2.17

White Star Woluwe W

1.46

Mechelen W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

1.19

creates per match

0.88

2.04

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Mechelen W

1.19

White Star Woluwe W

0.88

allows per match

Mechelen W

2.04

White Star Woluwe W

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mechelen W+0.00on par

White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechelen W ↓

White Star Woluwe W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Mechelen W or draw

74%

Mechelen W or White Star Woluwe W

79%

Draw or White Star Woluwe W

46%

Winning margin

Mechelen W wins by 2+

32%

White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mechelen W 1+ goals

89%

Mechelen W 2+ goals

64%

Mechelen W 3+ goals

36%

White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals

77%

White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals

43%

White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mechelen W (draw refunded)

68%

White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechelen W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

White Star Woluwe W away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechelen W attack 1.19 + White Star Woluwe W defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.88 + Mechelen W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mechelen W scores more

54%

level

21%

White Star Woluwe W scores more

26%

Mechelen W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mechelen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff