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Weymouth Wales vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
2/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Weymouth Wales60%
×Draw20%
UWI Blackbirds20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weymouth Wales
2.23
UWI Blackbirds
1.21

Weymouth Wales creates 84% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 37 away

creates per match

Weymouth Wales
2.87
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Weymouth Wales
0.83
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw
80%
Weymouth Wales or UWI Blackbirds
80%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
40%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
38%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
89%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
65%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
38%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
70%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
34%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
75%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.23

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more
60%
level
20%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
20%

Weymouth Wales at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weymouth Wales vs UWI Blackbirds

Weymouth Wales beat UWI Blackbirds 4-0 in Premier League on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.