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UWI Blackbirds vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2019

UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
4/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

UWI Blackbirds27%
×Draw21%
Weymouth Wales52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI Blackbirds
1.53
Weymouth Wales
2.15

Weymouth Wales creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds
2.30
Weymouth Wales
3.05

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.24
Weymouth Wales
0.76

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw
48%
UWI Blackbirds or Weymouth Wales
79%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
73%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
13%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
78%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
45%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
20%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
88%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
63%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
35%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.53

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more
27%
level
21%
Weymouth Wales scores more
52%

Weymouth Wales at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI Blackbirds vs Weymouth Wales

UWI Blackbirds and Weymouth Wales drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.