Wexford 1–2 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Wexford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Drogheda United

D. Furlong 15'

J. Hyland 31'

L. McNally 28'

5/31/2019

First Division · Round 15Ferrycarrig Park (Newcastle, Crossabeg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Wexford25%

×Draw23%

Drogheda United53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.87

Wexford

1.21

Drogheda United

1.87

Drogheda United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 22 away

1.24

creates per match

2.18

1.55

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Wexford

1.24

Drogheda United

2.18

allows per match

Wexford

1.55

Drogheda United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

47%

Wexford or Drogheda United

77%

Draw or Drogheda United

75%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

10%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

70%

Wexford 2+ goals

34%

Wexford 3+ goals

12%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

85%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

56%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

32%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Drogheda United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Drogheda United attack 2.18 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wexford scores more

25%

level

23%

Drogheda United scores more

53%

Drogheda United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Furlong

28'

L. McNally

31'

J. Hyland

38'

T. Croke

61'

L. Gallagher

89'

J. Brown

90'

C. Kenny

90'

J. Hyland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff