Drogheda United 3–2 Wexford: Result & Stats

Drogheda United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wexford

A. Foley 90+2', 65'

D. James-Taylor 77'

A. Dobbs 79', 42'

10/6/2024

FAI Cup · Semi-finalsWeavers Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Drogheda United64%

×Draw19%

Wexford17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drogheda UnitedExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.15

Drogheda United

2.39

Wexford

1.15

Drogheda United creates 108% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

3.18

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Drogheda United

3.18

Wexford

1.30

allows per match

Drogheda United

1.00

Wexford

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw

83%

Drogheda United or Wexford

81%

Draw or Wexford

36%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+

42%

Wexford wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals

91%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

69%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

42%

Wexford 1+ goals

68%

Wexford 2+ goals

32%

Wexford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

79%

Wexford (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 3.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 3.18 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.39

Wexford attack 1.30 + Drogheda United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Drogheda United scores more

64%

level

19%

Wexford scores more

17%

Drogheda United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Foley← F. Pierrot

42'

A. Dobbs

55'

E. Boyle← M. Rowe

58'

D. Webster

58'

L. Heeney← S. Farrell

65'

75'

77'

79'

90+4'

J. Crawford← S. McHale

90+4'

K. Harnett← A. Dobbs

90+2'

A. Foley

Drogheda

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: K. Doherty

30'▲A. Foley←▼F. Pierrot

58'▲L. Heeney←▼S. Farrell

Drogheda United substitutes

FoleyHeeneyHaper-BaileyMcNallyWoganBosakaniDeeganCailloceDavis

Manager: J. Keddy

55'▲E. Boyle←▼M. Rowe

75'▲C. Curtis←▼L. Lovic

90+4'▲J. Crawford←▼S. McHale

90+4'▲K. Harnett←▼A. Dobbs

Wexford substitutes

BoyleCurtisCrawfordHarnettLennonMoodyLynchCrowleyWebb