Weston 1–0 Swan City: Result & Stats

Weston

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swan City

6/5/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 6Cypress Bay High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Weston62%

×Draw21%

Swan City17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WestonExpected goals in this matchSwan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.98

Weston

2.06

Swan City

0.98

Weston creates 110% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.58

1.39

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Weston

1.29

Swan City

0.58

allows per match

Weston

1.39

Swan City

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston+0.00on par

Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Swan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Weston or draw

83%

Weston or Swan City

79%

Draw or Swan City

38%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+

38%

Swan City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals

87%

Weston 2+ goals

61%

Weston 3+ goals

34%

Swan City 1+ goals

62%

Swan City 2+ goals

26%

Swan City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)

78%

Swan City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Swan City attack 0.58 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Weston scores more

62%

level

21%

Swan City scores more

17%

Weston at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff