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Swan City vs Weston — USL League Two 2018

Swan City
Swan City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Weston
Weston
6/30/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 14Thomas W. Bryant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City48%
×Draw27%
Weston25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swan City
1.41
Weston
0.92

Swan City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 40 away

creates per match

Swan City
1.00
Weston
0.75

allows per match

Swan City
1.08
Weston
1.82

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par
Weston+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Weston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Swan City or draw
75%
Swan City or Weston
73%
Draw or Weston
52%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+
24%
Weston wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals
76%
Swan City 2+ goals
41%
Swan City 3+ goals
17%
Weston 1+ goals
60%
Weston 2+ goals
23%
Weston 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)
66%
Weston (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Weston away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Weston defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Weston attack 0.75 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Swan City scores more
48%
level
27%
Weston scores more
25%

Swan City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Swan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swan City vs Weston

Swan City beat Weston 1-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Thomas W. Bryant Stadium in Lakeland, Florida.