Weston 1–0 Pinellas County: Result & Stats

Weston

FT

1 – 0

Pinellas County

5/25/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 3Cypress Bay High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Weston34%

×Draw22%

Pinellas County44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WestonExpected goals in this matchPinellas County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.93

Weston

1.67

Pinellas County

1.93

Pinellas County creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Weston

2.00

Pinellas County

2.00

allows per match

Weston

1.85

Pinellas County

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston+0.00on par

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Pinellas County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Weston or draw

56%

Weston or Pinellas County

78%

Draw or Pinellas County

66%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+

17%

Pinellas County wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals

81%

Weston 2+ goals

50%

Weston 3+ goals

23%

Pinellas County 1+ goals

85%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

57%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)

43%

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Pinellas County away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 2.00 + Pinellas County defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pinellas County attack 2.00 + Weston defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Weston scores more

34%

level

22%

Pinellas County scores more

44%

Pinellas County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pinellas County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff