Pinellas County 2–0 Weston: Result & Stats

Pinellas County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Weston

7/6/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 16St. Petersburg High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pinellas County58%

×Draw21%

Weston21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pinellas CountyExpected goals in this matchWeston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Pinellas County

2.08

Weston

1.19

Pinellas County creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

2.27

creates per match

0.94

1.45

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Pinellas County

2.27

Weston

0.94

allows per match

Pinellas County

1.45

Weston

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Weston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinellas County ↓

Weston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pinellas County or draw

79%

Pinellas County or Weston

79%

Draw or Weston

42%

Winning margin

Pinellas County wins by 2+

35%

Weston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pinellas County 1+ goals

87%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

61%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

34%

Weston 1+ goals

70%

Weston 2+ goals

33%

Weston 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

73%

Weston (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinellas County at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Weston away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinellas County attack 2.27 + Weston defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.08

Weston attack 0.94 + Pinellas County defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pinellas County scores more

58%

level

21%

Weston scores more

21%

Pinellas County at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pinellas County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff