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Weston vs Caledonia — USL League Two 2018

Weston
Weston
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caledonia
Caledonia
6/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 45Broward College South Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Weston65%
×Draw19%
Caledonia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston
2.21
Caledonia
0.98

Weston creates 126% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

Weston
1.29
Caledonia
0.57

allows per match

Weston
1.39
Caledonia
3.14

finishing

Weston+0.00on par
Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Caledonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Weston or draw
84%
Weston or Caledonia
81%
Draw or Caledonia
35%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+
42%
Caledonia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals
89%
Weston 2+ goals
65%
Weston 3+ goals
38%
Caledonia 1+ goals
62%
Caledonia 2+ goals
26%
Caledonia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)
81%
Caledonia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.21

Caledonia attack 0.57 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Weston scores more
65%
level
19%
Caledonia scores more
16%

Weston at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Weston 1–0 Caledonia

Weston beat Caledonia 1-0 in USL League Two on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Broward College South Campus in Pembroke Pines, Florida.