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Caledonia vs Weston — USL League Two 2018

Caledonia
Caledonia
FT
0 – 0
Weston
Weston
5/21/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 8Moccasin Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caledonia32%
×Draw28%
Weston39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonia
1.07
Weston
1.21

Weston creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 40 away

creates per match

Caledonia
0.33
Weston
0.75

allows per match

Caledonia
1.67
Weston
1.82

finishing

Caledonia+0.00on par
Weston+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonia ↓

Weston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Caledonia or draw
61%
Caledonia or Weston
72%
Draw or Weston
68%

Winning margin

Caledonia wins by 2+
13%
Weston wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Caledonia 1+ goals
66%
Caledonia 2+ goals
29%
Caledonia 3+ goals
9%
Weston 1+ goals
70%
Weston 2+ goals
34%
Weston 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Caledonia (draw refunded)
45%
Weston (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Weston away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonia attack 0.33 + Weston defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Weston attack 0.75 + Caledonia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Caledonia scores more
32%
level
28%
Weston scores more
39%

Weston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Caledonia 0–0 Weston

Caledonia and Weston drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Moccasin Field in Lakeland, Florida.