Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Torquay: Result & Stats

Weston-super-Mare

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Torquay

J. Dodd 24'

M. Jay 56'

2/25/2025

League #51 · South - 35The Optima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Weston-super-Mare42%

×Draw25%

Torquay33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weston-super-MareExpected goals in this matchTorquay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.31

Weston-super-Mare

1.52

Torquay

1.31

Weston-super-Mare creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

1.31

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.80

Torquay

1.31

allows per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.30

Torquay

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Torquay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston-super-Mare ↓

Torquay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Weston-super-Mare or draw

67%

Weston-super-Mare or Torquay

75%

Draw or Torquay

58%

Winning margin

Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+

21%

Torquay wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals

78%

Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals

45%

Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals

20%

Torquay 1+ goals

73%

Torquay 2+ goals

38%

Torquay 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)

56%

Torquay (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston-super-Mare at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Torquay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.80 + Torquay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Torquay attack 1.31 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Weston-super-Mare scores more

42%

level

25%

Torquay scores more

33%

Weston-super-Mare at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Weston-super-Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Dodd

55'

O. Zanzala← O. Mussa

56'

M. Jay

81'

L. Hasani← O. Threlkeld

83'

O. Bray← Pedro Borges

90+2'

E. Palmer← C. Cooke

Weston-super-Mare

Torquay

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Bartlett

83'▲O. Bray←▼Pedro Borges

Weston-super-Mare substitutes

BrayCaneSeberryLewisJenkins

Manager: P. Wotton

55'▲O. Zanzala←▼O. Mussa

81'▲L. Hasani←▼O. Threlkeld

90+2'▲E. Palmer←▼C. Cooke

Torquay substitutes

ZanzalaHasaniPalmerCraskeJenkins-Davies

Match Recap: Weston-super-Mare vs Torquay

Weston-super-Mare and Torquay drew 1-1 in League #51 on February 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Dodd (24'), M. Jay (56').

The match was played at The Optima Stadium in Weston-super-Mare, Somerset.

Weston-super-Mare vs Torquay — League #51 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Weston-super-Mare vs Torquay