Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torquay vs Weston-super-Mare — League #51 2026

Torquay
Torquay
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare
L. Dennis 79', 6'
M. Jay 43'
C. Cummins 72'
12/26/2025League #51League #51 · South - 23Plainmoor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torquay48%
×Draw23%
Weston-super-Mare29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torquay
1.79
Weston-super-Mare
1.35

Torquay creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Torquay
2.19
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

allows per match

Torquay
1.31
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par
Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Weston-super-Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Torquay or draw
71%
Torquay or Weston-super-Mare
77%
Draw or Weston-super-Mare
52%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+
26%
Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals
83%
Torquay 2+ goals
53%
Torquay 3+ goals
26%
Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals
74%
Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals
39%
Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)
62%
Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Weston-super-Mare away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.40 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torquay scores more
48%
level
23%
Weston-super-Mare scores more
29%

Torquay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Dennis
43'
M. Jay
72'
C. Cummins
79'
L. Dennis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torquay vs Weston-super-Mare

Torquay beat Weston-super-Mare 3-1 in League #51 on December 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Dennis (6', 79'), M. Jay (43'), C. Cummins (72').

The match was played at Plainmoor in Torquay.