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Westlandia vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
CANC
13:00
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
3/14/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Westlandia45%
×Draw25%
Hsc 2130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.57
Hsc 21
1.25

Westlandia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
Hsc 21
1.17

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
Hsc 21
1.52

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
70%
Westlandia or Hsc 21
75%
Draw or Hsc 21
55%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
23%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
79%
Westlandia 2+ goals
46%
Westlandia 3+ goals
21%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
71%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
36%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
60%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + Hsc 21 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hsc 21 attack 1.17 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Westlandia scores more
45%
level
25%
Hsc 21 scores more
30%

Westlandia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Westlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Westlandia host Hsc 21

March 14, 2021: Westlandia take on Hsc 21 in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.