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Hsc 21 vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Westlandia
Westlandia
6/6/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 34Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hsc 2159%
×Draw20%
Westlandia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
2.27
Westlandia
1.31

Hsc 21 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
2.29
Westlandia
1.09

allows per match

Hsc 21
1.54
Westlandia
2.25

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

Westlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
79%
Hsc 21 or Westlandia
80%
Draw or Westlandia
41%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
37%
Westlandia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
90%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
66%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
39%
Westlandia 1+ goals
73%
Westlandia 2+ goals
38%
Westlandia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
73%
Westlandia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 2.29 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Westlandia attack 1.09 + Hsc 21 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
59%
level
20%
Westlandia scores more
21%

Hsc 21 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Hsc 21 2–1 Westlandia

Hsc 21 beat Westlandia 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on June 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.