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Westlandia vs FC Lienden — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
FT
1 – 1
FC Lienden
FC Lienden
9/21/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 5Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Westlandia56%
×Draw23%
FC Lienden21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.87
FC Lienden
1.06

Westlandia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
FC Lienden
0.78

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
FC Lienden
2.11

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
FC Lienden+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

FC Lienden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
79%
Westlandia or FC Lienden
77%
Draw or FC Lienden
44%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
32%
FC Lienden wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
85%
Westlandia 2+ goals
56%
Westlandia 3+ goals
29%
FC Lienden 1+ goals
65%
FC Lienden 2+ goals
29%
FC Lienden 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
73%
FC Lienden (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

FC Lienden away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + FC Lienden defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.87

FC Lienden attack 0.78 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Westlandia scores more
56%
level
23%
FC Lienden scores more
21%

Westlandia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Westlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Westlandia 1–1 FC Lienden

Westlandia and FC Lienden drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk).