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FC Lienden vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

FC Lienden
FC Lienden
CANC
00:00
Westlandia
Westlandia
4/5/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 28Sportpark De Abdijhof (Lienden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Lienden41%
×Draw25%
Westlandia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lienden
1.54
Westlandia
1.38

FC Lienden creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC Lienden
0.83
Westlandia
1.09

allows per match

FC Lienden
1.67
Westlandia
2.25

finishing

FC Lienden+0.00on par
Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lienden ↓

Westlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Lienden or draw
66%
FC Lienden or Westlandia
75%
Draw or Westlandia
59%

Winning margin

FC Lienden wins by 2+
20%
Westlandia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Lienden 1+ goals
79%
FC Lienden 2+ goals
45%
FC Lienden 3+ goals
20%
Westlandia 1+ goals
75%
Westlandia 2+ goals
40%
Westlandia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Lienden (draw refunded)
55%
Westlandia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lienden at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lienden attack 0.83 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Westlandia attack 1.09 + FC Lienden defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Lienden scores more
41%
level
25%
Westlandia scores more
34%

FC Lienden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Lienden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Lienden face Westlandia (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with FC Lienden hosting Westlandia. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Lienden host Westlandia at Sportpark De Abdijhof (Lienden).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.